Domestic prefabricated decoration will account for 10% of prefabricated buildings in 2020, and the penetration rate is expected to reach 25% in 2025.

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Under the requirement of no speculation in real estate, investment in the real estate field or more investment in the indemnificatory housing field will bring about the demand for prefabricated construction.

The listed companies with clear businesses include components (Honglu steel structure, Seiko steel structure, Fuhuang steel structure), construction (CSCEC, MCC) and decoration (Yasha Co., Ltd.

In December, the Politburo meeting pointed out that “we should promote the construction of affordable housing and support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers”.

2) In the implementation opinions on accelerating the development of prefabricated buildings in 2017, Beijing made it clear that “from March 15, 2017, prefabricated buildings shall be adopted for projects newly included in the municipal affordable housing construction plan and new buildings invested by the government”.

According to the 14th five year plan of steel structure industry and the long-term goal of 2035, by 2025, the national steel structure consumption will reach about 140 million tons, accounting for more than 15% of the crude steel output, and the steel structure buildings will account for more than 15% of the new building area.

In 2020, a total of 630 million square meters of new prefabricated buildings will be started in China, an increase of 50% over 2019.

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It is expected that by 2025, the penetration rate of prefabricated buildings will reach 30% and the area of prefabricated buildings will reach 2.071 billion square meters, with a compound growth rate of about 19%.

2) steel structure: it is expected that the compound growth rate of fabricated building steel structure will exceed 40% in the next five years, and the overall compound growth rate of domestic steel structure consumption is about 9.5%.

Prefabricated building is a new development direction in the future construction field, and has also received strong policy support in recent years: 1) in October this year, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development said that “local governments should actively apply prefabricated concrete structure in indemnificatory housing and commercial housing and actively carry out the pilot of steel structure housing”.

According to the industrial chain, the assembly type can be simply divided into three links: upstream design and R & D, midstream component production and downstream construction and decoration.

In 2020, a total of 630 million square meters of new prefabricated buildings will be started in China, and it is expected that the area of domestic prefabricated buildings will reach 2071 million square meters by 2025.

According to the requirements, the compound growth rate of fabricated building steel structure is expected to exceed 40% in the next five years, and the overall compound growth rate of domestic steel structure consumption is about 9.5%.

It is expected that the construction of affordable housing is expected to become one of the driving directions of fiscal policy next year.

Note: no matter how good the logic is, we have to choose the time of intervention and exit in combination with the rise and fall trend of the market.

3) Construction: it is estimated that the compound growth rate of domestic prefabricated building area will be about 19% in the next five years, but the overall compound growth rate of domestic newly started building area will be about 5% in the next five years, and the overall benefits of construction enterprises are limited.

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The steady growth of infrastructure is expected to heat up next year, and the investment in the construction industry is expected to increase.

Prosperity ranking of each branch of prefabricated building ●●●● large ●● comparison of scenery of prefabricated building industry chain: Decoration > steel structure > construction.

In 2020, the steel structure output will be 89 million tons, accounting for only 8.35% of the crude steel output, and the steel structure buildings will account for about 6% of the new buildings.

1) decoration: the compound growth rate of prefabricated decoration is expected to be 56% in the next five years.

It is expected that in the next five years The compound growth rate of fabricated decoration is 56%.

The above content is only based on the static analysis of industry and company fundamentals and non dynamic trading guidance.

The penetration rate of prefabricated structures will increase to 20.5%, an increase of 7 percentage points over last year.

The investment research information platform built for financial professionals will interpret the latest macro and policies, analyze the industrial pattern and dynamics, and witness the magnificent and progressive era of China’s capital market with you—— The construction of indemnificatory housing of the research and information society will increase the demand ●●● large ●● the construction of indemnificatory housing is expected to become one of the directions of fiscal policy next year, bringing the demand for prefabricated buildings.

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