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【 Warning 】 Liu Zuoyi: The decline in cement is the highest in a decade! Sand and gravel aggregates need to be vigilant!

In recent years, with the impact of factors such as rising costs and declining profits in the cement industry, more and more cement companies have turned their attention to sand and gravel aggregates.

The Yangtze River Delta has the strongest resilience, with a decrease of about 5% in Zhejiang and Anhui.

Leading companies such as China Building Materials, Conch Cement, and China Resources Cement have been experimenting with new profit growth poles in their aggregate business.

From the perspective of regional performance, the trend of moving south and retreating north is obvious.

The northern region saw a decrease of 28.3%, the three provinces and municipalities in Northeast China saw a decrease of over 30%, and the southern region saw a decrease of 11.5%.

In 2022, cement production showed a regional downward trend, setting the largest decline since the 1970s.

During the meeting, Liu Zuoyi, President of Cement Geography, bluntly stated that the overall height of the cement industry has passed, and now we are looking at the pace of decline.

According to relevant data statistics, from 1949 to 2022, the total cement production in China was 47.8 billion tons.

On May 8th, Liu Zuoyi, CEO of Cement Geography, visited Sandstone Aggregate Network and thoroughly analyzed the development trend, market usage changes, regional production capacity and price changes of the cement industry in recent years with Li Hua, founder of Sandstone Aggregate Network, and members of the Data Center and Media Center.

From the perspective of cement prices, in 2023, against the backdrop of a significant increase in coal prices, the national cement price decreased by 9.9% compared to the average price from 2018 to 2022.

Erection Anchor

Liu pointed out that in the context of infrastructure investment bottoming out and real estate investment decreasing gradually, while increasing the intensity of cement peak shifting, it is expected that the cement demand for the entire year of 2023 will stabilize at a low base in 2022, and the trend of cement production will slightly recover, but there will be no high rise and low fall trend between 2020 and 2021
.

From historical data, it can be seen that cement production reached its highest value in 2014, followed by a fluctuating downward trend.

The Yangtze River Delta and South China saw declines of 17.3% and 14.2% respectively, with a greater decline than the national average.

After experiencing a peak period of development, the cement industry has encountered difficulties such as sluggish peak season, weak demand, sluggish shipments, higher inventory, and lower prices.

Among them, the southern market is severely divided, with a decrease of 9.1% in East China and 23.1% in Southwest China.

In 2022, after experiencing a high growth period, peak period, and platform period, cement production entered a downward channel.

Mr.

They detailed the real estate and infrastructure investment situation that has a significant impact on the cement industry, and put forward relevant opinions based on the development cycle of the foreign cement industry.

From 2011 to 2022, a total of 28 billion tons were produced, accounting for 59% of the total, indicating that the cement industry has achieved great development in recent years.

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