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In 2023, 13 industries such as cement manufacturing and steelmaking may be included in the carbon market with priority

The regions with the largest allocation of carbon market quota in the country are Shandong, Inner Mongolia and Jiangsu, which mainly allocate the quota for conventional coal-fired units (accounting for 80.7%), and the overall compliance rate is 99.5%.

The daily trading volume and average daily trading price of the national carbon market show obvious periodicity.

The filing application for the national certified voluntary emission reduction project is expected to be restarted.

On August 19, 2022, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the Implementation Plan on Accelerating the Establishment of a Unified and Standardized Carbon Emission Statistical Accounting System, which required relevant departments to further improve the carbon emission accounting methods and relevant standards of eight key carbon emission industries such as electricity.

The fluctuation of online trading price is relatively stable, and generally fluctuates around 58 yuan/ton of CO2.

The State attaches great importance to the completion of the quota payment of key emission units and the transparency of the processing information.

Which industries will be included in the carbon market in 2023? Determining the industry coverage and industry inclusion order of the national carbon market is an important link in the construction of the carbon market, which has a significant impact on the emission reduction effect of the carbon market, the role of the market and even the realization of China’s “double carbon” goal.

Compared with other major global carbon emission trading systems, China’s carbon emission intensity is at a higher level (5.95 tons of CO2/10000 dollars), while the average transaction price and price volatility of the national carbon market are at a lower level (8.85 dollars/ton of CO2 and 2%).

However, the industries included in the national carbon trading system were reduced from the initially planned energy-intensive industries such as petrochemical, steel, non-ferrous metals, paper making, electricity, chemical industry, building materials, to the first stage only including the thermal power industry, It is expected that the national carbon market will gradually be included in the remaining key industries in the “Fourteenth Five-Year Plan” period.

The total transaction volume was 2.812 billion yuan, and the average transaction price of online transactions was 58.08 yuan/ton of CO2, an increase of 24.64% compared with 46.60 yuan/ton of CO2 in 2021.

The average daily transaction price is relatively stable.

The construction of carbon market is more standardized.

The national certified voluntary emission reduction (CCER) will be included in the transaction scope when the national carbon market is launched.

Overall development of major global carbon emission trading systems (2021-2022) The average transaction price and price volatility of the EU carbon market are at a high level among the major global carbon emission trading systems; The average transaction price of the UK carbon market is at a high level in the major global carbon emission trading system; The carbon emission coverage rate of South Korea’s carbon market is at a high level among the major global carbon emission trading systems; The economic benefits of New Zealand’s carbon market are at a high level among the major global carbon emission trading systems, and all seven industries have been included in the carbon emission trading system.

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After the end of the first performance period, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued relevant documents requiring all provinces to deal with enterprises that failed to pay the quota in full and on time.

In 2022, the cumulative trading volume of carbon quota in China’s national carbon market is 50858800 tons of CO2, of which bulk agreement trading is the main trading mode (accounting for 87.84%).

The carbon emission coverage rate of the carbon market in Quebec, Canada is 78%, which is at a high level compared with other major global carbon emission trading systems.

Current situation of China’s carbon market At present, the global carbon emission trading system is mainly distributed in Europe, Southeast Asia and North America, covering about 17% of the global total greenhouse gas emissions.

During the first performance period, the CCER used by the national carbon market for quota settlement and low sales has accumulated about 32.73 million tons of CO2, bringing about 980 million yuan to the owners of 189 voluntary emission reduction projects or relevant market entities.

02 Which industries were first included in the carbon market? Based on the current situation of China’s national carbon market and relevant policies, we try to put forward suggestions on optimizing the industry coverage and industry inclusion order through modeling and evaluation.
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In December 2017, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the Construction Plan for the National Carbon Emission Trading Market (Power Generation Industry), and the national carbon emission trading system was officially launched.

In addition, the emission coverage rate and the number of industries included in the RGGI carbon market in the United States are at a low level in the major global carbon emission trading systems; California’s carbon market is at a high level.

The overall operation has made steady progress.

The price volatility (the difference between the annual highest transaction price and the lowest transaction price) is 13.36 yuan/ton of CO2, which is lower than the price volatility of all pilot carbon markets.

The trading concentration in 2022 (i.e.

During the first performance period, the state issued quotas to 2162 power generation enterprises, and 84.78% of them completed the quota payment in full and on time.

the sum of the trading volume of the first 20% of the trading days with the largest annual trading volume/the total trading volume of the whole year) is 91.93%, up 11.13 percentage points from 80.80% in 2021.

In March 2017, the National Development and Reform Commission suspended the application for CCER project filing, and each pilot carbon market only traded the CCER stock.

On March 14, 2022, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment of the People’s Republic of China made a public announcement on the problems of tampering and forgery of detection reports in some institutions.

The state attaches importance to the authenticity of carbon emission data of emission control enterprises.

The trading volume at the beginning and the end of the year is high, but the performance in the middle of the year is relatively low.

Since 2022, the average daily transaction price of CCER in the national carbon market has shown an upward trend before September 2022, reaching the highest average daily transaction price of 64.45 yuan/ton in September, and showing a slight downward trend after September, with the average daily transaction price falling back to about 60 yuan/ton of CO2.

The application for CCER project filing is expected to restart in 2023.

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