Can the cement industry recover this year? Tabai Group is optimistic
However, the performance of Tapai Group was slightly better than that of its peers.
With the gradual start of downstream projects, the cement price may rise.
At the same time, the company is also promoting and exploring the development of emerging industries, and strive to cultivate new economic growth points of the company.
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The company’s cement sales price decreased by 18.35% compared with the same period of the previous year during the reporting period, according to the announcement of Tabai Group; Affected by the year-on-year rise of coal purchase price, the average cost of cement sales of the company increased by 9.59% over the same period of the previous year.
While the sales price fell, the cost rose instead of falling, while the coal price rose from the beginning of the year to the end of the year.
At the same time, coal prices are expected to fall steadily, which will also have a positive impact on costs, and the industry’s profitability is expected to recover.
Tapai Group said that the imbalance of supply and demand phases, coupled with the disorderly inflow of low-price cement from Guangxi, Fujian and other provinces, led to the continuous decline of cement prices from the high level at the beginning of the year, and the high price of raw materials and fuels, which led to a sharp decline in the benefits of cement enterprises.
From the perspective of the whole industry of cement industry, in 2022, the demand for cement contracted rapidly due to the impact of multiple factors such as epidemic prevention and control, and the bottoming of the real estate market, showing the characteristics of “low demand, weak peak season, and weaker off-season”, and the annual cement output fell to the lowest value in nearly a decade.
This is also the largest decline in operating and net profit since the company went public.
Tapai Group is located in Guangdong, where the cement industry is weaker than the whole country.
After the disclosure of last year’s performance forecast in January, the company accepted two institutional surveys.
Last year, Guangdong’s total cement output was 151 million tons, down 11.40% year on year.
The national cement output was 2.12 billion tons, down 10.8% year on year.
At the same time, in view of the significant decline in cement profitability and capacity utilization during the reporting period, at the end of the year, Tapai Group conducted an impairment test on some cement clinker production lines and cement grinding systems with signs of impairment, and made a provision for impairment of fixed assets of 51 million yuan.
All indicators of the industry were at the worst level in recent years.
Tabai Group is optimistic about whether the cement industry can recover this year.
Tabai Group released its performance report on February 18, saying that the company’s operating revenue in 2022 was 6.035 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.76%; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was 266 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 85.50%, compared with 1.836 billion yuan in the same period of the previous year.
The gross profit margin has dropped by more than 20 percentage points, and the performance of Tapai Group is inseparable from the macro environment.
Some enterprises have reduced their prices to seek sales, but the price is supported by the bottom, and the decline is limited.
In the first half of 2022, the company’s cement sales decreased significantly due to the impact of hot and rainy weather, and the impact of this factor is expected to be significantly reduced in 2023.
It can be seen that the company’s production and sales decreased by more than 10% compared with that of the whole country.
Lai Hongfei said that in the future, the company will continue to strengthen and refine the main cement industry, accelerate the construction of cement kiln collaborative disposal of solid waste projects, smart factories, green mines and first-class safety standard enterprises, etc.
In the fourth quarter of 2022 last year, the company achieved an operating income of 1.923 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 161 million yuan, both of which were the best in the year.
Tapai Group said that under the background of the two-way squeeze of both volume and price decline and high cost, the profit of the cement industry declined seriously.
Affected by the fall in volume and price, the net profit of the cement enterprise Tapai Group fell precipitously, and its performance returned to ten years ago.
With the adjustment of epidemic prevention and control measures, the “16 financial” and “three arrows” policies were issued to support the development of the real estate industry, and the real estate market is expected to stabilize and recover in 2023.
Tapai Group said that the decrease of selling price and the increase of cost led to the decrease of the company’s comprehensive gross profit margin from 37.22% in the same period of the previous year to 17.00%, down 20.22 percentage points.
According to the Guoxin Securities Research Report, the cement price is stable in the off-season, the downstream projects have not yet started after the festival, and the demand is still in the recovery stage.
According to the data, the national cement price index reached a peak of 213.81 in October 2021, and then dropped sharply.
Lai Hongfei, the Secretary of the Board of Directors of Tapai Group, said that the downstream of cement is mainly divided into three parts: infrastructure, real estate and new rural construction, of which the real estate market is an important variable.
At the same time, the Development and Reform Commission of Guangdong Province announced the 1530 key projects in Guangdong in 2023, with a planned investment of about 1 trillion yuan in 2023.
However, compared with the third quarter report of last year, the performance of Tata Group improved in the fourth quarter.
In 2022, the cement output of the company reached 18.4457 million tons, down 7.65% from the same period of the previous year; The cement sales volume was 18264400 tons, down 7.70% from the same period last year; The sales volume of clinker reached 886600 tons, an increase of 319.75% over the same period last year.
The gross profit margin fell more significantly when the two sides were attacked.
The sluggish demand for cement has made the price of the national cement market “jump from the top”, and the price trend of the cement market throughout the year is full of signs of decline.
However, the real estate market is still an important variable.
More than 90% of the revenue of Tate Group comes from the cement business.
Chen Haowu of Bank of China Securities predicted that the situation of Tapai Group would improve in 2023, and the South China region is expected to show greater performance flexibility.
“As an important part of stable growth, key projects are expected to boost cement demand to a certain extent,” Lai Hongfei said.
Whether the real estate industry can recover depends on the fact that the real estate industry has gone through the past year.
Lai Hongfei, the Secretary of the Board of Directors of Tapai Group, is optimistic about whether the cement industry will recover this year.
By the end of 2022, the index had dropped to 141.64 points and the price had halved.
In addition, as a cyclical industry, the performance of Talbot Group inevitably fluctuates greatly.