Looking forward to 2023, the investment in infrastructure will maintain growth.

With the cost stabilizing and the pattern improving, the profit is expected to be restored.

The physical workload of infrastructure projects is less than expected.

The most obvious damage is the waist enterprises, which are not strong enough but have become real estate enterprises.

① The essence of the “lack of money” demand in the entire industry chain is the collapse of the credit chain, At present, it is extremely sensitive to credit, and the variable lies in the demand-side policy and the scale of the construction of guaranteed buildings; ② The speed of recovery at the B end needs a process, but it is also basically stable.

With the continuous recovery of demand and the benefit of stagger peak and limited production at the supply side, it is expected that the price increase may have a good sustainability.

The Shanghai Stock Exchange is not particularly healthy.

The trading volume of the Shanghai Stock Exchange must continue to increase, or it will be easy to fall back.

In addition, the supply of government bonds in the second and third quarters of 2022 is large, and the situation of fund siltation is relatively common.

From the perspective of the recovery, the cement index is highly correlated with the cement price trend.

At present, funds are active in steel, aluminum, coking coal, building materials, Baijiu, and the tail of brokers and banks can not be ignored.

In the short term, the national cement has started to recover, and the price in the following peak season in March is worth looking forward to.

1) The national cement price started to recover from the rising price.

At present, the issuance of special bonds in 2023 has begun.

Luwei Optoelectronics: continue to hold! Ningde era: stand firm.

At present, it is the relay of small sectors, mainly small sectors, pharmaceutical sub-industry and small industries such as clothing.

It is estimated that the amount of special bonds in 2023 will be higher than 3.65 trillion yuan in 2022 (excluding the balance limit), and the issuance pace will be earlier and more concentrated than that in 2022.

Valin Steel: temporarily held, and the steel industry is optimistic in the short term.

(1) Building materials: The Guotai Jun’an Research Report pointed out that from the next week, especially from February 21, when the “dragon rises”, the delivery of building materials will enter the cashing period of rapid delivery in a seasonal sense.

At present, it is still 85.5 yuan/ton lower year on year.

Erection Anchor One Sided

If the listed company can perform significantly in Q1, then it will be more optimistic about the performance of the subsequent quarter by quarter, and the speed of market interpretation may be faster; If the performance of listed companies in Q1 is not obvious, it can be gradually improved from Q2, and the corresponding layout security is also relatively high.

If you do not grasp the rhythm, it will be difficult to surpass the index.

Hunan Haili: Continue to hold! Longping Hi-Tech Co., Ltd.: continue to hold and cover the position in the later period! Daotong Technology: Stand firm and increase positions! Jinzheng shares: bought back and sold in the early market, broke the new low and left.

The trading volume of the GEM is not large today.

It needs to be cautious to catch up, especially for the sectors with active funds.

The traditional capital construction provinces such as Anhui, Henan and Hubei and the northwest region have high fixed investment growth targets, and 10 provinces and regions have set double-digit growth targets.

The current position is 30%.

Last week, the national cement price started to recover from the rising price.

Subot: It will be sold without limit tomorrow.

It is mainly the index driven by the rise of some super stocks.

The volatile cement market in spring is still worth looking forward to.

If the price can continue to rise in the peak season in March, it may still catalyze the valuation repair.

New materials in South Asia: copper clad plate, catch up.

In terms of sectors, tomorrow’s software services cannot effectively break through, and Chatgdp will be easy to adjust in general.

Tuesday’s market analysis: The probability of falling down tomorrow is high, and it is difficult for banks and securities companies to continue to rise.

All suggestions are for reference only.

2) Infrastructure investment is expected to maintain a high growth rate in 2023, which will drive the special bond for cement demand in 2023 to be an important source of capital for infrastructure investment, and maintain a high growth trend in the past three years.

The overall capital is limited, and the capital is active in individual industries and sub-industries.

Focus: conch cement, Tianshan cement, Shangfeng cement, Huaxin cement minority stock portfolio: medium and short term stocks (medium risk preference, personal trading is for reference only): Greenland, Perfect World: catch up with the part in the early market, break through the overweight.

The expected stage of the first quarter report is a very critical period for the layout of the building materials sector, because the base starts to decline significantly from Q2 in 2022.

Convertible bond model portfolio (low risk preference): today’s yield – 0.2%, total profit 43.5%.

Zhenyu Technology: temporarily held.

Focus: Jiangshan Europa, Subot, Dongfang Yuhong 2, Cement: Guohai Securities pointed out that the cement industry will perform poorly in 2022 due to the sluggish demand.

After the market has experienced the adjustment and style rotation of the real estate chain after the spring, the layout of building materials, especially consumer building materials, is ushering in a new important period of opportunity.

The index market is dominated by the market.

The demand at the C end is accompanied by the first recovery of second-hand housing, and the confidence is exceeding the earlier pessimistic expectations, which can be confirmed by the data of shipments and orders from the C end and light industrial and household enterprises; ③ The clearance of the industrial chain in the past year has been very significant.

Today, three quarters of the stocks do not outperform the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index.

Secondly, the market can enter a stable period only after the adjustment of the AI sector is completed.

Basically, it is only one or two days.

In this round, they have been completely cleared.

The Shanghai Stock Exchange is strong, the GEM is weak, the big power is strong, and the small ticket is weak.

Considering that it takes more than one year to form the physical workload after the commencement of infrastructure projects, the siltation funds in 2022 will be concentrated in 2023 to promote the formation of physical workload and effectively drive the recovery of cement demand.

Whether the market is stable depends on whether Ningde Times and Maotai are stable.

The main economic indicators targets for 2023 in various regions were announced.

Investment is risky and investment needs to be careful!!!.
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