Generally, I will come back one week after the Spring Festival, but now I will come back in 2-3 weeks.

The inventory reached 60-70%, and the annual average was more than 50%.

This week I will recover.

In the first two years, South China has been better, but the stability in the past two years is not enough.

At present, there is still room for even 2 to 2.1 billion tons.

Q: Statistic Bureau cement – 10%, but the actual feeling will be more than this? Many enterprises have reported this problem to us.

The top 10 enterprises account for 60%+of the newly-built line, and will not invest randomly, unless the price reaches 450-500, and the construction will start again.

Every month, we should stagger the peak according to the market changes.

First, the coal price is low, and the cement price is rising.

Personally, I think it is a positive signal that the demand really recovered at the end of February and the beginning of March.

In 2023, from the transmission of confidence and slogans, it is landing on the physical workload, This year will not be as strong as the strong stimulus and growth in 2022, and we hope to return to the normal level in March.

The recovery of the market in South China is weaker than that in the Yangtze River Delta.

Q: New capacity in 23 years? 22 years is the breaking point, and 23 years should not be many.

According to the early feedback, the real estate in the southwest is poor, and the capital construction is mainly capital, but the delivery of demand in February is obviously better.

But the biggest concern is whether the investment in infrastructure can make up for the decline in real estate.

Large enterprises hope to maintain the same level in 2022, indicating that the industry’s expectations are lower.

Q: Last year, a lot of capital construction bids were opened? Last year’s bid opening and investment, but because the epidemic has delayed the promotion, it is believed that this year will be implemented.

Yunnan and Guizhou, in particular, are the regions with the fastest growth in demand in the past few years, with rapid growth and rapid decline.

Last year, low prices could not flow.

We will have to look back.

Q: How is the peak shifting plan compared with last year? The annual plan is behind schedule.

The overcapacity and concentration of Sichuan and Chongqing are lower than that of the southwest, and the intensity and means of peak shifting are behind those of the Yangtze River Delta and South China.

Now is the time to solve the inventory pressure, and the price increase can be implemented.

Last year, infrastructure construction+10%, real estate – 10%, but cement – 10%, because infrastructure is not in place, see if it can be made up this year.

Because of the epidemic, the normal seasonal peak season can still be reflected, and the peak shift is in place.

Under this background, the price rose.

Solve elastic space through peak shifting.

If the performance in the first half of the year is very good, it will be no problem to go flat this year.

South China: Guangdong is developed early, and many of its transportation is backward.

They think the recovery is still low, but they still see a rebound, and they also see a rise in traffic.

The price is at the bottom, with a peak of more than 500, and now it is less than 400.

It cannot be put into production or landed.

According to the data in February, the shipment situation in the southwest is OK, and the recovery is OK.

With the seasonal advance, they will do it one round at a time.

In the third week after the Southern Festival, it was a little obvious that the resumption of work began in succession and the price rose rapidly.

Q: The construction personnel may not come back? It’s slow to return, but it’s hard to say if you can’t return.

Each region in a province may be different.

Since the second half of 2021, there have been three peak seasons in a row, and it will be very difficult if it is not prosperous again.

Q: Which areas have more definite volume elasticity? Yangtze River Delta: It is still stable, and there are no problems with projects and funds.

Central China: This year, the price is low, and the inventory is high.

Last year, the poor efficiency forced the line of 2500t/d to be stopped, and the price was at a certain position, which could control the exertion of some production capacity.

Since the epidemic last year led to a slowdown in the progress of many projects, this year we will observe whether the outbreak is concentrated.

So the market was good this year.

Guizhou has a strong performance last year.

Whoever dares to build the line last year will be forced to stop.

Foreign trade is not good, real estate is not good, and infrastructure will continue to pull.

In this way, the decline of 10% has been the largest since the 1970s.

Rebar Support Chair

The biggest problem in South China is the challenge of new capacity.

Whether the local financial funds support it or not, I think this year, we must start to look at the strength of infrastructure projects in March, and the second fund continues to keep up.

Experts introduce the current situation: the south is starting, while the north is still wintering.

Q: This year’s regional mobility problem? The source of liquidity is price.

This year, we learned that the investment growth rate of infrastructure is at least 5%.

Why is the price of Guangdong and Guangxi lower than that of East China, where the enterprises are strong and must have share and share? Now the concept has been adjusted, facing the downward demand, the control volume in South China and the peak staggering in Guangxi are better, so it is easy to do.

Now the price has just started, and it may come again in the middle of March.

Q&AQ: What do you think of March to May, can you raise the price every month? In 2022, unlike in previous years, the demand in 2022 declined relatively fast, and it could not cope with the situation of high inventory and low shipment last year.

Southwest: The most worried area is the southwest region, with a very large decline.

Guangxi, Guangdong and Guizhou have also done well in this regard.

From the current situation, the price cannot be too high, because there is no demand support.
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In the case of uncertain demand, there is only one card in hand, that is, to stagger the peak in advance and to stagger the peak in place.

Both the Yangtze River Delta and South China have done it.

North: basically not moving, Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei moved a little before the time.

In the past, real estate has not dropped so much.

The industry is still very clear about the seasonal grasp.

At present, the price is still in the process of recovery, and there is no flow, because some places have relatively large capacity and must be exported.

In the south, especially in East China, South China and Southwest China, there were significant changes in terms of shipment volume and inventory.

At present, we are still confident.

But from now on, the Spring Festival is misplaced.

In the first half of the market, capital construction has both advantages and constraints.

There is room for project improvement.

The Yangtze River Delta is also a market vane.

There is no such large local market, which is the price difference.

Don’t worry about how much it is.

Last year, the growth of infrastructure investment was fast, and it was necessary to promote infrastructure construction.

It is expected that the price will rise to at least 400, so the price is low, but the coal price is also loose.

It must be a trend decline.

Even more is 23H2.

The Peak Stagger 1.0 version is the year, and now it is accurate to the month.

If the demand was not appropriate, the price should not be too high, and the price would not be considered until the volume was finished.