Several insiders pointed out that this round of cement price increase was mainly driven by the manufacturers.

Only by controlling the kiln line of the cement enterprise to stop production, can better results be achieved.” The market is expected to split in the past year, and the decline of the cement market is all obvious: the peak season is not strong, and the slack season is weaker, The price war continues.

It is expected that the demand support for infrastructure construction this year will be stronger than last year, but it will not offset the negative impact of the real estate downturn.

At the same time, the optimization of epidemic prevention policies can effectively alleviate the transportation pressure of cement enterprises, and play a certain role in supporting the cement market demand.

Specifically, the price of cement in Guangxi rose 10-20 yuan/ton in the first week after the Spring Festival; In the second week, cement prices in Guangdong, Jiangsu, Hunan, Yunnan, Shaanxi and other places increased by 20-30 yuan/ton; In the third week, cement prices in Shanghai, Zhejiang, Chongqing, Sichuan, Guizhou, Jiangxi and other places increased by 20-30 yuan/ton.

It is expected to be at least after the middle and late March.

We think it will not be seen until at least August to September this year,” said the analyst.

An analyst in the cement industry said that the main task of the real estate industry is still to “guarantee the delivery of the building”.

The biggest obstacle to the recovery of the cement industry lies in the supply side, mainly due to the serious overcapacity of the industry.

The recovery of the real estate market, including the improvement of the capital situation in all aspects, will drive the demand for cement to rise year-on-year.

Another big part of cement demand is infrastructure.

Although the cement industry has been implementing “peak shift shutdown” in recent years, it cannot simply use the shutdown time to control the output.

According to the prediction of the digital cement network, the profit of the cement industry in 2022 will only be about 68 billion yuan, more than 100 billion yuan less than that in 2021, and about 60% less than that in the same period of last year.

However, under the support of national policies, the infrastructure projects are expected to develop.

“Cement production costs remain high, profit space is limited, and manufacturers have strong willingness to increase prices.

Last year, the growth rate of infrastructure in a narrow sense was 9.4%, but the demand for cement did not rise.

The current market situation is not particularly clear, the overall demand is poor, and some cement enterprises have high inventory.

According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, the national cement output in 2022 will be 2.12 billion tons, down 10.8% from the previous year, and 9.6% higher than the previous year.

“According to our recent survey, some cement enterprises shipped about 60000 tons at this time last year, and now the volume is only about half of last year.” This year, under the background of stable demand, controllable cost and adjustable supply, the profit decline of the cement industry may be narrowed.

In this case, the cement output fell to the lowest level in nearly 11 years, and the industry profit was cut to the knees.

The real estate developers need to deliver the delayed projects and uncompleted projects before they can invest in the development of new projects.

The demand recovery was less than expected and entered February.

Within three weeks after the holiday, cement prices in more than 60 cities across the country rose to varying degrees.

“This will have a great impact on the overall demand for cement in the first half of this year, so we expect that the cement sales volume in the first half of this year may still decline year-on-year.

Last year, the decline in the depth of real estate investment caused a great drag on the demand for cement.

It is expected that the cement market in the first half of the year will be weak and the average price will be lower than the same period in 2022; The average price in the second half of the year may be higher than that of the same period in 2022, and the average price in the whole year may be lower than that of last year.

It is understood that the fundamental reason for the difficulty in raising the price of cement at present is that the recovery of market demand is less than expected and the inventory is too high.

The national cement market stopped falling and recovered.

Spherical Head Anchor

On the one hand, many cement listed companies and securities companies are optimistic about the recovery of prosperity in 2023; On the other hand, many insiders said that cement demand and price are expected to continue to decline this year, and the decline may be narrowed.

Against the background of great downward pressure on the economy, it is difficult for real estate demand to recover significantly.

“According to our statistics, in 2022, about 1000 cement enterprises suffered losses, accounting for more than 1/3 of the whole industry.” Another industry insiders believe that the cement industry is expected to maintain a profit center of 60-70 billion yuan in the next few years.
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Recently, the price of cement has been raised in many places, and the range of price increase is gradually expanding.

In 2023, the growth of real estate investment may further slow down, and the support of real estate to the cement market demand is limited.

From the current situation, the probability of the return of real estate investment this year is small, so the demand for cement will still decline.

It is suggested to switch the shutdown days of the stagger kiln to ‘double control of energy consumption’ and ‘total carbon emissions’.

If the cement price is to rise smoothly in the first half of the year, it needs to wait for the demand to return to the balance of production and sales.

The real estate market is the most important terminal market of the cement industry and the largest variable of cement demand.

“Because the production time is reduced while the production capacity of the industry is still improving, so the overall production capacity cannot be reduced.

In the first quarter of the past year, the cement price is mostly at a low level.

However, there is a delay of 3-6 months from the start of the new project to the actual demand for cement.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the national real estate development investment in 2022 will be about 13.29 trillion yuan, down 10% from the previous year; The housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 9049.99 million square meters, down 7.2% year on year.

Interviewees generally believed that the recovery of the cement industry depends on the stabilization of real estate investment and the steady growth of infrastructure construction, and more importantly, the deepening of the supply-side structural reform of the cement industry itself.

From the actual implementation, the cement prices in most regions are still low, and the profitability of cement enterprises still needs to be repaired.” The recent survey results of cement price trend after the festival show that it is expected that the cement prices in South China, Southwest China, Central China Cement prices in Northeast China remained stable while those in East China, Northwest China and North China were weak.