Tracking | [Changjiang Building Materials] Xinjiang Cement Market: A Model Market, Welcoming the Dawn of 20230515
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The significant increase in year-on-year sales during the peak season reflects the acceleration of regional construction projects.
How to estimate the resilience of green pine construction? At present, Qingsong Jianhua is the pure target of Xinjiang Cement.
Thank you for understanding the basic pattern of Xinjiang cement market? In 2022, Xinjiang’s cement production reached 38.45 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 17%.
The core constraint is still the epidemic.
We calculated that the price per ton was 444 yuan, the cost per ton was 293 yuan, the gross profit per ton was 151 yuan, and the net profit per ton was 77 yuan.
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From January to April of 2023, the cement production in Xinjiang increased by 20% year-on-year, and in May, it has accumulated a total increase of 17%.
The leading Tianshan Mountains and Qingsong Mountains have achieved the layout of the whole Xinjiang, with a strong foundation for collaboration.
In 2023, we believe that the core elasticity comes from sales expansion+cost dilution
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However, the current price in southern Xinjiang is about 500 yuan/ton, while in northern Xinjiang it is about 400 yuan/ton.
Although the contradiction of overcapacity in Xinjiang is very prominent (the overall capacity utilization rate is less than 45%), under the constraint of high concentration ratio and strong peak shift shutdown, the regional cement price maintains a high level all the year round.
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Against the backdrop of high price levels combined with excess, price elasticity may be limited, but it does not mean that profitability is not elastic.
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With the acceleration of construction of some key projects (such as highways, railways, airports, etc.) with a lower base, regional demand is expected to recover quickly in 2023, with an expected growth rate of up to 20% (the market’s focus is on the construction of the China Jiwu Railway in 23 years), which is expected to return to the level of 2021 (the total output of Xinjiang in that year was 46.48 million tons).
The regional concentration ratio is relatively high, with CR2 reaching 50%.
What do you think of Xinjiang Cement in 2023? The proportion of key projects in the cement structure in Xinjiang is about 50%.
In 2022, the cement sales volume was 6.03 million tons.